Updated elements of USA 193

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Feb 21 2008 - 03:09:11 UTC

  • Next message: Ralph McConahy: "AP reporting USA 193 hit by missile"

    This update adds new observations reported by Alberto Rango on Feb 19, and mine
    of early Feb 21 UTC.
    
    Daniel Deak made a useful observation in bright twilight on the rev before mine,
    which provided an indication that it was reasonably on time - helpful in
    finalizing plans for my observations.
    
    USA 193          5.0  2.5  0.0  4.3 v                    242 X 257 km
    1 29651U 06057A   08052.01700749  .00286558  00000-0  31619-3 0    04
    2 29651  58.4796  26.1000 0011038 100.0855 260.1493 16.08904727    04
    Arc 2008 Feb 18.79 - 21.03, WRMS residuals = 0.036 deg
    
    Rate of altitude decrease is about 1.6 km/d (kilometres per day).
    
    Using the above elements and a 10.7 cm solar flux of 71, Satevo v0.51 estimates
    decay from orbit on 2008 March 12. The uncertainty is at least several days.
    
    Definition of 2-line elements format:
    
    http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/SSapplications/Post/JavaSSOP/SSOP
    _Help/tle_def.html
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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