Report time 20:15 UTC 2011-065A (#37872) Phobos-Grunt Here the first forecast based on the Special Perturbation theory and the 11 ELSETs 11353.14... - 11355.50... SFX and Ap comes from the NOAA 27-day Space Weather Outlook issued Dec 20, 2011. With a modified Jacchia density model (US STRATCOM version) I see the decay on 14 January 2012, 20:07 UTC +/- 2.5 days Accurate predictions depend strongly from the density model. For example the Jacchia - Lineberry model used by NASA today shows the decay on 14 January 2012, 00:45 UTC +/- 2.5 days I think this is in good agreement with Teds very careful and helpful daily analysis with the STOAG - semi-analytic program. Remark: My estimated uncertainty is an "internal" output value. Harro Harro Zimmer - Berlin (Germany) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20111221/99c29283/attachment.html _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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